The Coalition’s Mid-Term ‘Wobble’
By Simon Benson, Associate Director, London
When Sky News’ Adam Boulton came to speak to guests at a recent Fleishman-Hillard Business Breakfast, he described current political events as a classic mid-term ‘wobble’. It is the cyclical nature of politics that after a couple of years in Government, Ministers will be punished in local elections and Opposition parties will reap the benefits.
For Labour Leader Ed Miliband, the results look a little better than the actuality because his Party is still coming from an extremely low base, despite some gains last year. However, it has been a good few weeks for a man who has been battling to gain the respect and confidence of his own party faithful, not just the electorate. He has landed well aimed punches at Cameron over high profile issues, such as the recession and the relentless fall-out from the Leveson inquiry, as well as the unravelling of the March Budget. Easy hits, perhaps, but even sitting ducks such as these can be missed if political leaders pitch their attacks in the wrong way. Google ‘Lord Kinnock’ for a few examples. Miliband is successfully making Cameron appear angry and not in full control, while gaining confidence in his own rhetoric. With both David Miliband and Tony Blair signalling returns to UK politics, Ed’s current renaissance would appear especially well-timed.
This time last year, Insight Special was noting how the Tories had held ground after a year of being in Government. After the loss of numerous councils and nearly 400 council seats, Cameron today said ‘these are difficult times’, though it is unclear whether he was referring to his party, the country or both. Only in London will Cameron get a reprieve with the predicted re-election of Boris Johnson. But this is partly because Johnson has (once again) managed to disassociate himself from the Tory brand (and by definition, Cameron). It also shows the extent of his personal popularity, especially in the traditionally considering left-leaning constituency of the capital. At a meeting last year, I asked him if he still intends to take the Tory crown and he bridged expertly, like a man who had been very well media trained. But the eyes are the window to the soul, and they twinkled like the night sky.
Last year, I rather uncharitably described the Liberal Democrat leader in Insight Special as ‘Calamity Clegg’. Since then, he has passed the two immediate tests that faced him at that time; having the resolve to carry on in Coalition, taking the rough with the smooth; and carrying the support of his parliamentary party. That resolve has taken him through the resignation of one of his most high profile Ministers, Chris Huhne, while supporting Tory cuts and reforms to the NHS that many of his party faithful simply cannot stomach. The Liberal Democrats are nothing without their well-oiled local election machine and the generally rather well-healed activists that operate it. Clegg will be squeezed even further by these activists on the one side demanding more Lib Dem influence at the top and Tories such as Gary Streeter MP on the other. Streeter today said the results were a clear message to Cameron that voters ‘don’t think our leadership is Tory enough’.
