Post Debate polls:
- Lazarus/Channel 4 News: Brown 44%, Clegg: 42% Cameron 13%
- YouGov/Sun: Cameron 41%, Clegg 32%, Brown 25%
- ComRes/ITV News: Cameron 35%, Clegg 33%, Brown 26%
- Populus/Times: Cameron 38%, Clegg 38%, Brown 25%
- ICM/Guardian: Cameron 35%, Brown 29%, Clegg 27%
- Angus Reid/Political Betting: Cameron 36%, Clegg 30%, Brown 23%
Brown directly spoke about the Duffy incident in last night’s third and final TV debate, admitting that he does not always get things right but that he does get it right ‘on the economy’. The BBC spun it as the most argumentative of the debates and at times the strict format creaked as the candidates tried to inject some traditional Westminster knockabout into proceedings.
Immediate polling figures showed that Cameron ‘won’, with Clegg in second place and Brown third. However, it’s worth remembering that these statistics are about who won the debate, rather than voting intentions. Official viewing figures released a few minutes ago show that interest in the public was high – eight million people watched it, almost twice the numbers who saw it on Sky/Freeview but two million less than the first debate on ITV two weeks ago.
Cameron and Clegg clashed over the economy, Clegg repeatedly asking Cameron for statistics to match his rhetoric, Cameron repeatedly refused to answer him. And Cameron and Brown both laid into Clegg on the issue of immigration. It was the Liberal Democrat leader who seemed the least comfortable this time around. His political shine from the last few weeks seemed to give way to a sweaty sheen under the unforgiving glare of the studio lights. His answers were not as polished either and he was the only candidate who needed notes to tell the viewers why they should vote for him – both Brown and Cameron spoke directly to the audience.
Repeated themes included Cleggs’ party piece of talking down to Brown and Cameron, accusing them of squabbling. This was not as successful this time round. As we mentioned after the first debate, there is only so far Clegg can go to pretend that he is not actually a politician before the public wise up. Furthermore, Clegg cannot claim that successive Tory and Labour Governments have ruined the country when his own Party have been part of the same democratic process, supporting or opposing Government legislation each year as well as running large town halls in key areas. This anti-politics strategy may have been exposed.
Another old favourite from last week was Cameron’s message that Labour are trying to ‘frighten’ voters. This from the politician who used a stabbing as a springboard to launch a political campaign against crime and ‘Broken Britain’ only a few days ago. The cynicism of this is yet to be picked up by whatever is left of Labour’s operation. Cameron’s performance was cool and self assured. He tried not to rise to the taunts of Nick Clegg and had finally learned how to talk direct to the studio camera.
Brown did surprisingly well considering the disaster of the last few days. His answers were uncharacteristically simple and clear. But there is a feeling that no matter what he does or says, he is looking like yesterday’s man. He can’t make an impact because even if people agree with him, they don’t want to say so.
Performers sadly underused from the billing last night were the ensemble act of, Mandelson, Osborne and Cable who only had bit-parts in the post-broadcast encore. But the few minutes they were given were enough for Mandelson to describe Brown’s performance as ‘barnstorming’, a word we understand he was brandishing some 20 minutes before the debate ended. He added that Brown had ‘set the (political) agenda’. Osborne got in a double whammy, saying ‘Clegg was under pressure and Brown looked tired’. Vince Cable clung to the argument for a hung Parliament, saying ‘all parties are going to have to work together’.
It was in impressive production from the BBC, with chair David Dimbleby doing well to keep the candidates within the constraints that they themselves had imposed on the format, despite their best efforts to be more argumentative.
Today’s Polls:
- YouGov/Sun: CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(nc), LDEM 28%(-3)
- Angus Reid/Economist: CON 33%(+1), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 30%(-3)
- TNS/BRMB: CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 30%(nc)
Campaign Activity:
- Boris Johnson has been interviewed in the Daily Telegraph, outlining his advice to David Cameron if he makes it to Number 10;
- Gordon Brown launches Labour’s final election posters of the campaign, which focus on family and children’s issues;
- Nick Clegg will hold a Q&A session with students at De Montfort university;
- David Cameron will visit schools Derby and Cannock Chase;
- Tony Blair is expected to campaign in the South East;
- SNP and Plaid leaders Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones will hold a press conference outlining their position in the next Parliament;
- Boris Johnson and Tory immigration spokesman Damian Green will speak about ID cards and civil liberties in West Hampstead;
- Gordon Brown will be interviewed by Jeremy Paxman on BBC1 tonight at 8:30pm.
Newspaper Headlines:
- The Times – ‘The fight for a job’
- The Daily Telegraph – ‘Cameron on the money’
- The Guardian – ‘Cameron wins third leg’
- Daily Express – ‘Cameron on the threshold of Downing Street after a total triumph in the big TV debate’
- Daily Mail – ‘Combative Cameron puts Clegg on the rack over Europe and immigration’
- Financial Times – ‘Cameron out in front as he leaves TV debate rivals running to catch up’
- The Sun – ‘Scrambled Clegg and Toast: But Cameron is full of beans’
Reaction:
“The television debates have been a great innovation but, granted the opportunity of an hour and a half to specify where spending cuts will come, all three pretenders to the office of prime minister preferred not to say. Mervyn King’s prediction that whoever wins the general election will be out of power for a generation does offer some sense of the economic inheritance awaiting the winner.”
The Times
“Throughout it all, Mr. Cameron’s manner was businesslike – almost brusque – but by sounding purposeful he has very likely done enough to maintain his edge. His proposal to cut spending in the depth of the slump and then cut taxes once the recovery is at full strength, is not merely pre-Keynesian in its naivety, but simultaneously offends against the orthodox desire to rebalance the books when happy days return. Yet Mr. Cameron defended all of this with a breezy confidence.”
The Guardian
“Immigration is 5 times what it was when Labour took office – which makes it a subject worthy of debate, not least because this policy was never endorsed by the people. That is what Mrs. Duffy wants to discuss, as do many other voters, for it has an impact on the sort of country we are, on the size of our population and on the strain of our public services – which to date has hardly been planned for, a reckless dereliction of the Government’s duty. If Mr. Brown wants to take this matter seriously, he can start by acknowledging the reality of what has happened.”
The Daily Telegraph
“David Cameron simply refused to engage with Mr Brown, scarcely glancing in his direction and dismissing his attacks as desperate stuff from a desperate man. He attacked Labour’s record but turned his real fire on Nick Clegg – on his party’s policies on immigration, the euro and welfare reform. It was, perhaps, the greatest of all compliments to the Liberal Democrat leader, who once again tried to tap into public frustration with the performance of both big parties. The polls called this debate for Mr Cameron. He has a week to do the one thing that has eluded him these past four years – in his own phrase, to “seal the deal”.
Nick Robinson, BBC political editor
“Presumably because of the BBC’s obsession with not being seen as left-wing, there was the usual right-wing orgy on immigration after a question from the right by a token black person. There was a question on housing and house prices from a wealthy accountant. And there was a question from the right on welfare. Foreign affairs did not get a look in.”
James Macintyre, New Statesman
“That was the David Cameron I wanted to see. Passionate, full of conviction, positive, more combative. It wasn’t a slam dunk victory, but it was never going to be. But it was a clearcut victory – more so than last week. It was his best performance of the three, whereas I felt that Brown and Clegg put in their weakest performances of the three, although I am not diminishing Clegg’s appeal. His was still a comparatively good performance, but I thought he was in danger of overdoing the “two old parties” line in the first twenty minutes. He became irritating. Well, I found it irritating, at least. On two questions he floundered badly – immigration and housing. At the end he was reading notes during his final statement.”
Ian Dale, political blogger
“The final word must be about Gordon Brown though. He looked terrible. Grey, badly shaved, or badly made up. It reminded me of Richard Nixon. He tried to dispel memories of Gillian Duffy by offering that he doesn’t always “get it right”, and finished with an admission that at this rate we will have a Conservative government in a week. It wasn’t quite railing against the closing night, but it felt like the end. Suddenly tonight it feels like weeks of uncertainty have been replaced by the likelihood that Dave is going to do it.”
Ben Brogan, Daily Telegraph
“As the Spin Room quietens down and TB stops chasing around various hacks and politicians with a camera, it’s pretty clear from not only the polls, but the desperation of the attacks that this was a good victory for Cameron. Clegg was nailed on immigration and Brown was never really in the fight, bar a good line or two. His non-reference reference to yesterday was poor and no surprise the polls went the way they did at the end.”
Tory Bear, Conservative blogger
