The SNP published its White Paper on the constitutional future of Scotland today. First Minister Alex Salmond unveiled the paper, which looks at four options: no change, minor reform along the lines favoured by Labour and the Lib Dems, major reform that would create an almost autonomous Scotland within the UK and full independence. Unsurprisingly perhaps, the SNP Government has concluded that the best option is for Scotland to become an independent country. It will now seek to introduce a Bill for a referendum on independence, which we expect to see in January.
It has been a tough period for the Mr Salmond and the SNP, perhaps the toughest since they came to power. The party’s poll ratings are not as high as they were earlier in the year and their defeat in the Glasgow North East by-election was more severe than expected. Many of their key policies have been defeated in the Scottish Parliament, and the opposition parties have already announced their determination to block any Bill for a referendum on independence. Launching the next stage of their campaign for independence now seems a much bigger gamble than it did earlier this year.
In the face of this challenging set of events, even some of the SNP’s cadre of loyal bloggers, the so called “cyber-nats”, have been expressing their doubts. Perhaps the most influential of them all, ‘SNP Tactical Voting’, is arguing that, “It’s pretty clear that the SNP needs to get back to focussing on winning key, core battlegrounds before pushing as hard as it currently is with its independence plans. Don’t get me wrong, the party has the arguments to win a yes/no referendum, but the timing right now is all wrong.”
Current polling also suggests that whatever case Mr Salmond makes could fall on deaf ears. An Ipsos/Mori poll published at the weekend suggests that support for independence has dropped to just 20%, and perhaps more worryingly for the SNP, previously strong support for a referendum has also significantly dropped. Only 25% now want to see a referendum as soon as possible. But take a second look at the Mori poll. It may have had headline figures to make unionists smile, but the wider findings suggest that people in Scotland are also broadly behind greater powers being devolved to Scotland and that a referendum should be held ‘at some point’.
So it would be foolish to conclude the SNP are doomed in their quest for a referendum just yet. Most political commentators in Scotland have a healthy respect for Mr Salmond’s political acumen, and it is most unlikely he would either surrender his party’s main objective or allow it to suffer a predictable straightforward defeat.
Mr Salmond has long believed that the SNP’s best strategy has always been to play the long-game and that the best route to independence is through incremental change: as each step is taken toward self-determination, people in Scotland begin to approve and accept the next step. Polls that suggest the people of Scotland are still uncertain about full independence do not tell the First Minister anything he doesn’t already know.
There are also deals to be done on the Referendum Bill. Last week’s UK Government White Paper saw Labour accept the Calman Commission’s recommendations, but also announce that they would not legislate this side of a General Election. With the Conservatives the most likely victors of that election, and their leader David Cameron refusing to be bound by last week’s proposals, it seems that significant reform of devolution by Westminster is far from certain. This leaves the Liberal Democrats, who are fully committed to new powers for Scotland being devolved as soon as possible, feeling betrayed by their unionist allies, and prime candidates to do a deal with Mr Salmond.
This wholesale process of reviewing how Scotland is ruled sprang from the SNP victory in 2007. By committing his new Government to a referendum Bill on independence, Mr Salmond forced the unionist opposition parties to respond, leading to the Calman Commission. An SNP Government may not lead to independence, but it has succeeded in creating a new consensus for more powers to be devolved to Scotland. It is very hard to see any other circumstances that would have led to the other parties reviewing devolution together if the SNP had not won in 2007.
Scotland has now seen two White Papers published within a week of each other, both advocating significant constitutional change. And yet the political circumstances in which both were launched suggest that neither will pass their respective Parliaments any time soon. A new consensus for change in Scotland might have emerged; the precise manner in which it will be brought to pass however has yet to be agreed.
