In the course of this UK Parliament, there has been a by-election every year in Scotland. These by-elections have all seen Labour defending heartland seats with big majorities. But the results for the party have been mixed to say the least.
Now, in 2009, the last in this series will be played out in Glasgow North East following the resignation of speaker Michael Martin and his subsequent elevation to the House of Lords. The vote will be held on the 12th November.
So far, 2005 saw Jim Devine hold Livingston for Labour after Robin Cook died, but with a majority that fell from 13,000 to 2,600. In 2006 Labour lost Dunfermline and West Fife, with the Lib Dems’ Willie Rennie overturning Labour’s 11,500 majority, demonstrating again that in a by-election, the Lib Dems know how to mount a campaign. 2007’s contest in Glasgow East saw Labour fall to a stunning defeat at the hands of the SNP, with John Mason overturning a 13,500 majority. In 2008 however Labour’s campaign in Glenrothes saw Lindsey Roy returned on a reduced majority, but with an increase on the number of votes the party won in the 2005 General Election.
How will the Glasgow North East contest play out in relation to these other by-elections? Labour is once again on the defensive in a heartland area. Labour’s majority in 2005 was 13,500, representing over 60% of all votes cast, and with the nearest challengers, the SNP, polling just 17% of votes cast. But after its defeat in Dunfermline and Glasgow East, where similarly huge majorities were overturned, Labour can take nothing for granted.
The party knows this, and is trying to replicate its successful Glenrothes campaign. Labour’s resources have been deployed in Glasgow North East more fully, and far more effectively, than they were in the Glasgow East contest in 2007.
SNP candidate David Kerr on the campaign trail in Glasgow North East
Labour are also personally attacking the SNP candidate David Kerr, attempting to paint him as a non-local, anti-Glasgow gaffe-prone candidate enforced on the local constituency by the SNP’s national leadership. The Labour campaign is relatively light on policy, heavily focused on the personalities of the candidates and channelling as many activists as possible to the local area for canvassing.
But senior SNP figures are actually quite happy to see Labour spend so much of its resources defending one of its ultra-safe Glasgow strongholds. For Labour, the emotional connection to Glasgow and the trauma of the defeat in Glasgow East means a huge amount of resources have to go into winning the Glasgow North East by-election. The SNP leadership meanwhile can remain more exclusively focused on next year’s General Election and the 2011 Scottish Elections.
However, on a final note, running a big successful campaign that brings together many of their activists could turn out to be a very effective shot in the arm for otherwise demoralised Labour Party members. We’ll be back next week to look at the final results.
