The 2010 General Election looks set to be one of the most exciting UK contests in years, with opinion polls predicting a return to power for the Conservative Party. In Scotland however, the General Election could throw up some very peculiar results. Fleishman-Hillard Edinburgh has been looking at the recent polls to interpret what they all mean for Scotland.
Scottish opinion polls have been in agreement over the last few months that the SNP look set to win more votes than Labour in Scotland. In September a Mori poll for Holyrood magazine gave the SNP a 6 point lead and in October a YouGov poll for the PoliticsHome website gave the SNP a 5 point lead. At the same time however, political commentators are also in agreement that Labour will still win more seats in Scotland than any other party. Meanwhile the Conservatives, riding high in the polls in England, are in a distant third place and look unlikely to win more than three or four Scottish seats – and this would be a good night for them. For the SNP, Labour and the Conservatives, such a result will raise questions they each have to answer.
One of the reasons the Scottish Parliament was set up was to put an end to the complaint that a UK Government had no mandate in Scotland, if the governing party had not won the election there (and in the case of the last Conservative Government in 1992 – nowhere near with only 11 MPs out of 72). 2010 could see an even bigger quandary, with a UK Conservative Government which only has a tiny handful of MPs in Scotland a Labour party with the majority of Scottish MPs, but the party polling most votes, the SNP, with substantially fewer seats than Labour.
At face value, this may seem like a massively frustrating situation for the SNP. But the situation could also give the SNP some useful weapons to use in their quest for Scottish independence. Since 2007 the SNP have been the single largest party in the Scottish Parliament and have formed the Scottish Government. This has allowed them to build their credibility as an effective and responsible party of Government in Scotland. However, if next year sees them win the popular vote but win less seats than Labour, they will also be well positioned to cast themselves as victims of an unfair British system that sees Scotland ruled by a Conservative Party that few people voted for and represented at Westminster largely by Labour MPs, rather than the SNP who were the popular choice. The SNP could go into the next Scottish elections in 2011 arguing that the UK is fundamentally unfair to Scotland and fails to reflect the wishes of the Scottish people.
Internally, Labour will also need to answer questions about why its once dominant position in Scotland has crumbled. Many in the party thought losing to the SNP in 2007 in the Scottish Parliament elections was an aberration. Losing in 2010 as well though suggests losing is becoming a habit, one the party will need to break very quickly, as its Scottish heartlands are vital to its chances of holding power in either Westminster or in Holyrood . Labour will also need to think very carefully about how it portrays itself in Westminster if they lose the vote in the General Election in Scotland, but win the most seats. Any claims that Labour’s Scottish caucus speaks for and represents Scotland could be widely derided by their political opponents and the media.
The Conservatives will need to think about what they have to do to keep the SNP contained, and how they might, at long last, find a way of connecting with Scottish voters. David Cameron has repeatedly stated that he doesn’t want to be the last Prime Minister of the UK. The SNP however will be seeking to claim at every opportunity that Scotland is controlled by a party that fundamentally lacks the support of the Scottish people.
So winning the election, but losing in terms of seats could actually be a potentially rewarding result for the SNP as it strengthens one of the party’s key messages about Scotland losing out when it comes to the UK. Losing the vote but gaining the majority of seats could represent a dangerous long-term risk for Labour. And the Conservatives, the party of the Union, will still be looking to reconnect with Scotland, despite potentially triumphing in the rest of the UK. Scottish politics is rarely straightforward, and 2010 is shaping up to be a particularly complex and compelling contest.
